System Modeling and Analysis of Operational Effectiveness on Conventional Missile Blocking Airport Runway Based on SEA

Abstract

To rapidly analyze the combat effectiveness of conventional missile blocking airport runway,a method of combat effectiveness analysis based on system effectiveness analysis(SEA)was proposed. The framework structure and operational model for effectiveness analysis of conventional missile blocking airport runway were constructed by SEA method. Considering the characteristics of the attack-defense system of missile,the calculation method of the distribution density of the blocking degree was given,and the calculation accuracy of the model was verified. The accuracy can meet the actual combat requirements. The operation characteristics of the submunition blocking airport runway by the segmented cutting was analyzed,and the idea of cutting the runway by the power ring of the explosive missiles was applied,and the favorable missile-landing-zone was determined by judging the geometric relationship between the landing site of the mothers of the submunition and the cut runway. On this basis,an analytical model of runway failure probability was established to describe the degree of blockade. In order to build the blocking time calculation model reflecting the confrontation process of airport runway blockade and anti-blockade,the blocking time was divided into four parts namely runway damage judgment time,runway repair plan time,explosive ordnance disposal time and crater repair time. The calculation models were constructed for explosive ordnance disposal time and crater repair time, and the analytical model of blocking time performance measurement was completed. The probability density function of the blocking-time performance measurement was statistically inferred. The study lays the foundation for the analysis on subsequent operational effectiveness of conventional missile blocking airport runway by SEA method.