Integrated Urban Fire Risk Assessment using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and GIS: A Structural Vulnerability Analysis of Nagpur City.

Abstract

Urban fires represent a persistent yet under-addressed risk in rapidly urbanizing cities of the Global South, where infrastructure development often lags behind population growth and land-use intensification. In Tier-2 Indian cities, historic urban cores characterized by dense built form and constrained accessibility coexist with rapidly expanding peripheral areas, creating complex patterns of structural fire vulnerability that are inadequately captured by incident-based risk assessments. Conventional approaches relying on historical fire occurrence data are inherently reactive and fail to identify latent vulnerabilities embedded within the urban fabric.

This study develops a deductive, spatially explicit Fire Vulnerability Index (FVI) for Nagpur City, India, by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Five key determinants of intrinsic fire vulnerability—road network accessibility, land use and building density, land surface temperature, proximity to fire stations, and population density—were standardized and weighted using expert judgment validated through consistency analysis. The weighted criteria were spatially integrated using a weighted linear combination approach to generate a high-resolution vulnerability surface, which was subsequently aggregated to the ward level for administrative applicability.

The results reveal a pronounced core–periphery gradient in fire vulnerability, with approximately 14% of the city classified as very high vulnerability, predominantly concentrated within the historic core. Road network accessibility emerged as the most influential determinant, underscoring the critical role of last-mile access in constraining firefighting operations. The integration of land surface temperature highlights the role of urban heat islands as a risk multiplier, exacerbating fire susceptibility in dense, impervious neighborhoods. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the model, with high-risk clusters remaining spatially stable under varying weight scenarios.

By shifting fire risk assessment from retrospective hotspot mapping to proactive structural vulnerability modeling, this study provides a scalable and transferable framework for urban fire risk governance. The findings offer actionable insights for municipal planning, emphasizing the need for accessibility-oriented interventions in historic cores and regulatory enforcement in rapidly densifying peripheral areas. The proposed framework supports a transition toward resilience-oriented fire risk management in fast-growing cities of the Global South.