Cattle Farming Risk Simulation based on Business Typology

Abstract

Cattle farming in Aceh Province is an important sector contributing to the local economy and food security. However, cattle breeders in this region often face various risks, including production risk and market price fluctuation. Using a quantitative approach, this research identified various typologies of cattle farming businesses in Aceh and developed an integrated risk management model. Data were collected through surveys, interviews and observations of cattle breeders. The research results showed that extensive, intensive and semi- intensive rearing systems in Aceh Province differed significantly in terms of the influence towards livestock number, meat production and livestock price. In extensive system, insemination cost and the risk of livestock disease had a strong influence, while animal feed and livestock price had a less significant influence. In the intensive system, the cost of insemination and animal feed greatly contributed to the parameters, while the risk of disease and animal price did not significantly influence the parameters tested. Medical cost affected livestock price significantly. The semi-intensive system revealed a large contribution to the cost of insemination and animal
feed where production risk had a significant effect on livestock production and price. Reducing production and price risk had varying impacts depending on the maintenance system. In addition, semi-intensive system showed the greatest response to changes in risk.